538 County Road 4510

Hondo, TX 78861

$145,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 226 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$24
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $228/mo
• Annual: $2,735/yr
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#872 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $145k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Hondo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.