538 County Road 4510 · Hondo, TX 78861

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1998 0.93 ac lot $78/sqft · 53% above area $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

Key facts

• Workshop area
• Covered patio
• Cement slab

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• WORKSHOP AREA
• CEMENT SLAB
• PLAYGROUND FOR CHILDREN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Hondo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#872 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $145k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,900
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 52.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
782 County Road 4511	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-10%)	12mo	$218,400	$131	57
334 County Road 4511	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,096 (+13%)	23mo	$238,500	$114	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,895
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,295
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78861

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,072/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $145,000 Pending 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Price Change 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Price Change 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Price Change 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Price Change 223 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Price Change 222 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   price $150,000 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

8. 2026-05-05
   status Back on Market 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

9. 2026-05-01
   historical 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

10. 2026-04-11
    price $155,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

11. 2026-03-19
    price $160,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

12. 2026-03-10
    price $185,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

13. 2026-02-26
    price $199,900 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

14. 2026-01-21
    price $209,900 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

15. 2026-01-05
    price $225,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

16. 2025-11-09
    price $230,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

17. 2025-10-17
    listed $239,900 New 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Welcome home to Creekwood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers 1,848 sq. ft. of living space with room to relax, entertain, and make it your own. The home features a spacious living area, separate dining area, and a covered patio set on a 25x25 concrete slab, offering flexible use for outdoor entertaining, cookouts, workshop space, or a future outdoor kitchen setup. The large lot provides extra outdoor space and plenty of potential for buyers looking for room to spread out in Creekwood. Neighborhood amenities include a nearby playground. Qualified buyers may be eligible for low-to-no down payment loan options, down payment assistance, or grant programs. Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious home with great potential in Creekwood.

18. 2023-01-13
    historical
19. 2022-09-21
    price $270,000
20. 2022-09-01
    listed $275,000 New
21. 2015-07-08
    soldstatus
22. 2013-08-06
    soldstatus
23. 2012-12-07
    soldstatus $39,509
24. 2012-12-07
    soldstatus $39,509
25. 2011-06-20
    soldstatus
26. 2005-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,072
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hondo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #15726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,715

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 19% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 209.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+279.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $155,000 LERA
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $160,000 LERA
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $185,000 LERA
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $199,900 LERA
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $209,900 LERA
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $225,000 LERA
• 2025-11-09 Price Changed $230,000 LERA
• 2025-10-17 Listed $239,900 LERA
• 2023-01-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $270,000 LERA
• 2022-09-01 Listed $275,000 LERA
• 2015-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $39,509 Public Records
• 2012-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $39,509 Public Records
• 2011-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,072 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.