1219 Crystal St

Toledo, OH 43605

$20,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1892 · SingleFamily · Pending · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $965/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $624/mo
• Annual: $7,492/yr
• Cap rate: 43.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.78%
• DSCR: 6.95
• 1% rule: 4.83%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($965 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Broadway Elementary School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,518 of 1,584 statewide, top 96%, 411 students, 0% FRL); Waite High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #687 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 43.8% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.