25910 Fox Grape Rd

Greensboro, MD 21639

$250,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,711/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#202 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greensboro Elementary School (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 785 students, 81% FRL); Lockerman Middle School (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #165 of 225 statewide, top 75%, 866 students, 66% FRL); North Caroline High School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade D+, #106 of 222 statewide, top 48%, 1,226 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $250k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.6% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.