25910 Fox Grape Rd · Greensboro, MD 21639

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1988 0.60 ac lot $189/sqft · 16% below area Est $296k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Quiet living in Fox Grape Farms. Whether you are downsizing or just starting out, this home offers one-level living with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and an open living room that flows into the dining area. Situated on a 0.60 +/- parcel, the property also features two (2) storage sheds. Located approximately 7 miles from Denton, MD, 11 miles from Tuckahoe State Park and 16 miles from the Harrington Raceway & Casino in Harrington, DE. Restricted to owner-occupants, non-profits and government agencies through 05/09/2026. HUD Case #241-928326. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Key facts

• Open living room
• One-level living
• Dining area

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic system
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Assessor-reported year built
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level; 2 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Wall unit heating; Electric and leased propane heating fuel; Electric hot water; Other cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Estimated living area; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.6% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#202 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greensboro Elementary School (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 785 students, 81% FRL); Lockerman Middle School (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #165 of 225 statewide, top 75%, 866 students, 66% FRL); North Caroline High School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade D+, #106 of 222 statewide, top 48%, 1,226 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $250k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,495
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -15.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13061 Logan Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-4%)	13mo	$335,000	$266	74
26056 Fox Grape Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,215 (-8%)	5mo	$290,000	$239	68
13070 Ridgely Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	6mo	$360,000	$268	67
142 Smugglers Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+3%)	18mo	$316,000	$232	56
123 Parkland Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-10%)	5mo	$269,950	$228	51
107 Parkland Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-8%)	11mo	$281,990	$231	50
125 Parkland Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+11%)	5mo	$292,990	$201	46
111 Parkland Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+11%)	9mo	$289,990	$199	42
12710 Greensboro Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,472 (+12%)	20mo	$389,900	$265	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $72,772
• Equity at exit: $148,177

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $209,378
• Equity at exit: $261,281

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21639

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,162/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,019

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $213	+0% $143	+5% $72	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $56	+0% $143	+5% $230	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $206	base $143	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Sycamore Ln Greensboro, MD	3.0	2.0	1182	$2,200	$1.86	46d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $250,000 Active 575-char remark
20. 1988-08-02
    soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,162 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,162
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$603
• After-tax cash flow: $2,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Greensboro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #9657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,621

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.43%
• Current HPI: 321.0192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+237.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,162 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.