3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
948 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$888/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$818
Tax + insurance
−$146
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$186
Net cashflow
$-263/mo
Annual
$-3,159/yr
Cap rate
4.27%
Cash-on-cash
-7.23%
DSCR
0.68
1% rule
0.57%
Cash to close
$43,680
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $156k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (29.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (43.1% below list).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $89k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Urbana City (town): math 43% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #509 of 656 in OH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Urbana Elementary School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #942 of 1,584 statewide, top 61%, 871 students, 56% FRL); Urbana Junior High School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #519 of 654 statewide, top 80%, 433 students, 50% FRL); Urbana High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #390 of 781 statewide, top 54%, 550 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Champaign County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
10 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $72k; list at $156k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 18 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29