14939 Caves Rd

Chagrin Falls, OH 44072

$294,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,983/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-350/mo
• Annual: $-4,201/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $82,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (32.8% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in OH, #1,054 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: commute F.
• West Geauga Local (rural): math 83% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #28 of 656 in OH (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Robert C Lindsey Elementary School (math 92% / reading 88%, grade A+, #19 of 1,584 statewide, top 1%, 461 students, 10% FRL); West Geauga Middle School (math 80% / reading 82%, grade A+, #38 of 654 statewide, top 6%, 491 students, 10% FRL); West Geauga High School (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #35 of 781 statewide, top 6%, 693 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 220 units permitted in Geauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Geauga County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $295k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.3% in Chagrin Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.