387 Cornwall Hill Rd

Putnam Lake, NY 12563

$799,000C-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,968 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,512
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,680
• Net cashflow: $618/mo
• Annual: $7,415/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $799k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $703k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#654 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.3% in Putnam Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.