3311 Belmar Blvd

Shark River Hills, NJ 07719

$350,000C+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,735 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,804/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$780
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,672/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#297 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 501 students, 10% FRL); Wall Intermediate School (math 33% / reading 58%, grade D+, #143 of 431 statewide, top 34%, 763 students, 9% FRL); Wall High School (math 32% / reading 61%, grade D-, #129 of 399 statewide, top 33%, 936 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Shark River Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.