12 Edgewood Ln

Belleville, IL 62223

$149,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$286
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-173/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-173/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.