646 Sheepside Rd

Laneview, VA 22504

$29,990B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $704/mo
• Annual: $8,451/yr
• Cap rate: 34.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.64%
• DSCR: 5.48
• 1% rule: 3.79%
• Cash to close: $8,397

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($208 loan paydown + $990 appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Essex County Public School District (town): math 22% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #124 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.