646 Sheepside Rd · Laneview, VA 22504

$29,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily · 140 Days on market

Built 1968 0.26 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors dream less than a mile from the Rappahnnock River. For sale as is. Agent/Owner

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Essex County Public School District (town): math 22% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #124 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($208 loan paydown + $990 appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.64%
• DSCR: 5.48
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $48,954
• Equity at exit: $13,995

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.20×
• Total profit: $110,841
• Equity at exit: $21,972

Cash invested: $8,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22504

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $288/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $29,990

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,498
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,990 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,990 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,990 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,990 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,990 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,990 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,990 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,990 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,990 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,990 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,990 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,990 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,990 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,990 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,990 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $29,990 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Investors dream less than a mile from the Rappahnnock River. For sale as is. Agent/Owner

17. 2026-02-12
    price $39,990 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Investors dream less than a mile from the Rappahnnock River. For sale as is. Agent/Owner

18. 2026-01-29
    listed $47,990 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Investors dream less than a mile from the Rappahnnock River. For sale as is. Agent/Owner

19. 2025-06-30
    historical
20. 2025-04-16
    price $58,950
21. 2025-03-12
    listed $62,598 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$288
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,091
• − Management: −$1,091
• − Depreciation: −$872
• Taxable income: $8,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,032
• After-tax cash flow: $6,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,651
• Composite: 32.7/100
• National rank: #5645
• State rank: #124 of 131 in VA

Livability — Laneview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 117

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,027 people
• By 2030: 10,772 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 10,006 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 9,043 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 6,629 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 4,618 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.8) · D 45.8% · R 53.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 10.3pp · 2024: -7.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.8 2020: R+0.6 2016: R+2.2 2012: D+7.2 2008: D+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Current HPI: 159.144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-52.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $29,990 MLSRV
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $39,990 MLSRV
• 2026-01-29 Listed $47,990 MLSRV
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $58,950 MLSRV
• 2025-03-12 Listed $62,598 MLSRV

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $288 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.