5184 Lake Catalina Dr Unit D

Boca Raton, FL 33496

$629,000C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,053 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Pending · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,491/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax + insurance: −$660
• HOA: −$550
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,363
• Net cashflow: $619/mo
• Annual: $7,433/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $176,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $629k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $629k).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($554k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $554k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calusa Elementary School (math 83% / reading 85%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 867 students, 17% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Spanish River Community High School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #63 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 2,578 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 52% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7300% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $629k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.