5184 Lake Catalina Dr Unit D · Boca Raton, FL 33496

$629,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,053 sqft · Condo public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1989 $550/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Bright and airy 2 Bedroom + Den, 2.5 Bath condo in The Polo Club showcases panoramic lake and golf course views with gorgeous sunset vistas. Some features include an open floor plan with high ceilings, wet bar, L-shaped screened-in patio, spacious primary suite with walk-in closet, and a 1-car garage. Ideally located just steps from the private community pool and walking distance to the Clubhouse, Polo Shoppes, and dining. Enjoy resort-style living with two championship golf courses, tennis and pickleball, a state-of-the-art fitness and spa center, and multiple dining venues. Schedule a showing today! RENTED 12/14/25 - 4/14/26 ATTN: The membership is increasing! Any home that closes on or

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Wet bar
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• PANORAMIC LAKE VIEWS
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WET BAR
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $629k).
• Recommended offer: $554k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calusa Elementary School (math 83% / reading 85%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 867 students, 17% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Spanish River Community High School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #63 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 2,578 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 52% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($554k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7300% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $629k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $553,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $377,742
• Equity at exit: $566,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $1,072,927
• Equity at exit: $1,222,009

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33496

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,491 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,778/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,363
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,707

Max offer price $629,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $975	-5% $797	+0% $619	+5% $441	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $107	-5% $363	+0% $619	+5% $876	+10% $1,132
Rate	-1.0pp $936	-0.5pp $779	base $619	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4695 Brandywine Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.0	1974	$4,750	$2.41	25d	1	0.46mi
6213 NW 21st Ct Boca Raton, FL	3.0	4.0	2746	$10,000	$3.64	25d	1	0.53mi
6503 N Military Trl Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$3,211	$2.78	0d	51	0.61mi
17768 Maplewood Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$5,200	$2.45	22d	1	0.68mi
2464 NW 66th Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.5	2568	$10,000	$3.89	25d	1	0.89mi
2485 NW 66th Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2472	$9,500	$3.84	25d	1	0.94mi
2485 NW 66th Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2472	$9,500	$3.84	11d	1	0.94mi
5605 Forest Oaks Ter Delray Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2092	$10,000	$4.78	14d	1	1.02mi
5555 N Military Trl Boca Raton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$5,069	$3.95	2d	21	1.04mi
16843 Boca Delray Dr Delray Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$4,900	$3.20	22d	1	1.06mi
5801 NW 24th Ave #1001 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1957	$13,000	$6.64	17d	1	1.11mi
5500 N Military Trl Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$5,619	$5.33	0d	26	1.13mi
16658 La Mesa Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1779	$4,000	$2.25	25d	1	1.16mi
17099 Ryton Ln Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2492	$18,000	$7.22	25d	1	1.20mi
2237 NW 53rd St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.5	2305	$25,000	$10.85	25d	1	1.21mi
17699 Tiffany Trace Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	2264	$8,000	$3.53	16d	1	1.22mi
2011 NW 53rd St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2461	$11,000	$4.47	13d	1	1.23mi
2093 NW 52nd St Unit 2093 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1835	$13,000	$7.08	25d	1	1.24mi
2431 NW 59th St #404 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1957	$10,000	$5.11	25d	1	1.25mi
2034 NW 52nd St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1527	$12,000	$7.86	25d	1	1.26mi
2218 NW 52nd St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1482	$13,000	$8.77	25d	1	1.27mi
4983 Garden Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$15,000	$7.50	25d	1	1.31mi
5072 Alencia Ct Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$4,500	$2.75	25d	1	1.32mi
17712 Candlewood Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1984	$5,000	$2.52	25d	1	1.33mi
17712 Candlewood Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1984	$5,000	$2.52	6d	1	1.33mi
16415 Berry Way Delray Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	1605	$3,000	$1.87	17d	1	1.40mi
16850 Colchester Ct Delray Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	2715	$8,000	$2.95	19d	1	1.41mi
5500 Broken Sound Blvd NW Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1258	$4,688	$3.73	0d	26	1.41mi
4801 S Citation Dr Delray Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1180	$3,745	$3.17	0d	37	1.43mi
17309 Balboa Point Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	2013	$5,500	$2.73	25d	1	1.44mi
17317 Boca Club Blvd #8 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$3,500	$2.14	17d	1	1.45mi
5400 Broken Sound Blvd NW Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1330	$6,902	$5.19	0d	12	1.48mi
17210 Boca Club Blvd #103 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	2194	$4,000	$1.82	25d	1	1.48mi
3151 Clint Moore Rd #103 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1497	$3,145	$2.10	25d	1	1.49mi
17275 Ventana Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2457	$7,200	$2.93	25d	1	1.49mi
1428 NW 50th Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.0	1839	$4,300	$2.34	4d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-18
   historical $8,500
2. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $8,500
4. 2026-03-24
   historical $8,500
5. 2026-03-21
   listed $8,500
6. 2026-03-21
   historical $3,500
7. 2026-03-18
   listed $3,500
8. 2025-11-25
   historical $8,400
9. 2025-10-11
   listed $8,400
10. 2025-10-10
    listed $629,000 Active
11. 2025-10-08
    historical $8,400
12. 2025-10-08
    historical
13. 2025-09-04
    listed $629,000 Active
14. 2025-08-29
    price $8,400
15. 2025-05-02
    price $9,000
16. 2025-04-16
    listed $8,500
17. 2024-10-19
    historical $8,000
18. 2024-06-27
    price $8,000
19. 2024-05-07
    listed $9,000
20. 1987-12-01
    soldstatus $189,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,778 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,221 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$4,778
• − Insurance: −$3,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,232
• − Management: −$6,232
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable loss: −$2,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $8,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boca Raton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #3070

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 250,102
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,579
• Household income: $114,885
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 13% Romanian 9% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.48%
• Current HPI: 313.9058
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Rental Removed $8,500 RMLSFL
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $8,500 RMLSFL
• 2026-03-24 Rental Removed $8,500 GFLMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed for Rent $8,500 GFLMLS
• 2026-03-21 Rental Removed $3,500 GFLMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed for Rent $3,500 GFLMLS
• 2025-11-25 Rental Removed $8,400 RMLSFL
• 2025-10-11 Listed for Rent $8,400 RMLSFL
• 2025-10-10 Listed $629,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $8,400 RMLSFL
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $629,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $8,400 RMLSFL
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $9,000 RMLSFL
• 2025-04-16 Listed for Rent $8,500 RMLSFL
• 2024-10-19 Rental Removed $8,000 GFLMLS
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $8,000 GFLMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listed for Rent $9,000 GFLMLS
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,778 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.