442 N Hickory Ln

Valley Center, KS 67147

$200,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,708/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $352/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($352/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.6% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#180 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Center Pub Schools (suburban): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #57 of 169 in KS (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Center Intermediate School (math 33% / reading 54%, grade F, #268 of 684 statewide, top 39%, 480 students, 41% FRL); Valley Center Middle School (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #104 of 219 statewide, top 49%, 761 students, 42% FRL); Valley Center High (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #165 of 327 statewide, top 55%, 995 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,613 units permitted in Sedgwick County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sedgwick County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.