442 N Hickory Ln · Valley Center, KS 67147

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1976 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Covered patio
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• COVERED PATIO
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family onsite built
• Construction: Composition roof; Full foundation (no egress window)
• Exterior features: One-level layout; Chain link and wood fencing; Storm windows; Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Patio (covered)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups in basement with 220V equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($352/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#180 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Center Pub Schools (suburban): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #57 of 169 in KS (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Center Intermediate School (math 33% / reading 54%, grade F, #268 of 684 statewide, top 39%, 480 students, 41% FRL); Valley Center Middle School (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #104 of 219 statewide, top 49%, 761 students, 42% FRL); Valley Center High (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #165 of 327 statewide, top 55%, 995 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,613 units permitted in Sedgwick County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sedgwick County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,823 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,554
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,253
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67147

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,671

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $86	+0% $29	+5% $-27	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-38	+0% $29	+5% $97	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $80	base $29	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 W 3rd St Valley Center, KS	4.0	2.0	1759	$1,900	$1.08	15d	1	0.28mi
635 N Redbud Ave Valley Center, KS	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,495	$1.37	15d	3	0.38mi
300 E Ford St Valley Center, KS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1070	$1,350	$1.26	15d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $200,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-28
   listed $200,000 Active
6. 2026-02-05
   listed $101,000
7. 2003-08-27
   listed $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,820 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$734
• After-tax cash flow: $1,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center Pub Schools
• NCES district ID: 2012510
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,689
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6178
• State rank: #57 of 169 in KS

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #8258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Center, KS
• Population (ZIP): 11,193

Population outlook (Sedgwick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 537,014 people
• By 2030: 546,984 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 559,141 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 562,027 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 557,255 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 513,383 · -4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sedgwick

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.3% · R 56.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.6 2016: R+19.1 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.24%
• Current HPI: 251.9475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+131.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $200,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $101,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-27 Listed $86,500 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.