11042 Wink Ln

Paint Rock, TX 76866

$99,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 873 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $123/mo
• Annual: $1,478/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.33%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 873 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,245 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Paint Rock ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,008 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Concho County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Concho County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 873 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.