11042 Wink Ln · Paint Rock, TX 76866

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Manufactured public records · 873 Days on market

Built 2021 1.00 ac lot $122/sqft · 12% below area Est $113k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 872 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,245 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Paint Rock ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,008 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Concho County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Concho County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 873 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 873 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.33%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,862
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -12.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,352
• Equity at exit: $34,542

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $38,394
• Equity at exit: $46,485

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76866

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $351/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 873 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 872 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 871 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 870 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 869 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 868 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 867 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 864 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 863 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 862 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 860 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 858 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 857 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 856 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 855 DOM
16. 2026-01-13
    price $99,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

17. 2025-03-27
    price $110,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

18. 2024-11-22
    price $115,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

19. 2024-11-18
    status Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

20. 2024-03-25
    price $118,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

21. 2024-02-08
    price $119,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

22. 2024-01-23
    listed $120,000 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    New price improvement! The little piece of heaven that you have been looking for is now available. Come and enjoy the 1 acre of peacefulness and the cutest mobile home around. There is plenty of wildlife to enjoy and Lake O. H. Ivie is practically in your backyard. This property is truly "move in ready". Make it yours today!

23. 2011-09-19
    soldstatus 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED on this nice 1 acre lot at Lake Ivie that is zoned for a mobile home or modular home. Good Water Well with pump house, electricity and septic system all on site. All you need to do is move the home in. Property is in a gated subdivision with a home owners association dues of $125.00 per year.

24. 2009-11-17
    listed $16,500 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED on this nice 1 acre lot at Lake Ivie that is zoned for a mobile home or modular home. Good Water Well with pump house, electricity and septic system all on site. All you need to do is move the home in. Property is in a gated subdivision with a home owners association dues of $125.00 per year.

25. 1996-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,461/yr (+$122/mo · 416.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$351
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$866
• − Management: −$866
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $1,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paint Rock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833980
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,480
• Composite: 28.53/100
• National rank: #12081
• State rank: #1008 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Paint Rock

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1245
• US rank: #21750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 918

Population outlook (Concho County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,538 people
• By 2030: 4,681 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 4,975 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 5,329 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 5,760 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 4,903 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 26% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Concho

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.1pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+69.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+51.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 104.2078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $99,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $110,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $115,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-11-18 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $118,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $119,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-01-23 Listed $120,000 SAAR TX
• 2011-09-19 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2009-11-17 Listed $16,500 SAAR TX
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · -15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.