33 Melody Lake Dr

Rock Hill, NY 12701

$245,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,794/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$634
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-501/mo
• Annual: $-6,018/yr
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (36.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.