33 Melody Lake Dr · Rock Hill, NY 12701

$245,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1957 0.26 ac lot $196/sqft · at area comps Est $247k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this move-in ready 1,248 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch house featuring hardwood floors in the heart of Melody Lake .Sullivan County With a large, private backyard, this home is perfect for outdoor gatherings or relaxing in your peaceful space. Conveniently situated, you're just minutes from everything Sullivan County offers!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Peaceful space
• Outdoor gatherings

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR GATHERINGS
• PEACEFUL SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY SITUATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (36.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,411 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,418
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -0.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Pine Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	14mo	$230,000	$184	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $101,660
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $324,817
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,382/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,429

Max offer price $156,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-363	-5% $-432	+0% $-501	+5% $-571	+10% $-640
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-572	+0% $-501	+5% $-431	+10% $-360
Rate	-1.0pp $-378	-0.5pp $-439	base $-501	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $245,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,999 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $199,999 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Discover this move-in ready 1,248 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch house featuring hardwood floors in the heart of Melody Lake .Sullivan County With a large, private backyard, this home is perfect for outdoor gatherings or relaxing in your peaceful space. Conveniently situated, you're just minutes from everything Sullivan County offers!

18. 2026-04-14
    listed $240,000 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Discover this move-in ready 1,248 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch house featuring hardwood floors in the heart of Melody Lake .Sullivan County With a large, private backyard, this home is perfect for outdoor gatherings or relaxing in your peaceful space. Conveniently situated, you're just minutes from everything Sullivan County offers!

19. 2025-12-12
    historical
20. 2025-09-10
    listed $259,000 Active
21. 2024-11-17
    listed $288,000 Active
22. 2024-10-15
    historical
23. 2024-10-09
    listed $288,000 Active
24. 2024-09-19
    soldstatus $165,000
25. 2006-02-16
    soldstatus $142,500
26. 2006-01-31
    soldstatus $142,500
27. 2005-12-16
    historical
28. 2005-09-26
    listed $155,000
29. 2003-01-02
    soldstatus $108,000
30. 2002-12-14
    soldstatus $108,000
31. 2002-10-19
    historical
32. 2002-07-21
    listed $120,000
33. 1983-12-21
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,382 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,382 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$6,382
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$10,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,490
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 2,661
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $240,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-17 Listed $288,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-09 Listed $288,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2006-01-31 Sold (MLS) $142,500 HGMLS
• 2005-12-16 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-09-26 Listed $155,000 HGMLS
• 2003-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-14 Sold (MLS) $108,000 HGMLS
• 2002-10-19 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-07-21 Listed $120,000 HGMLS
• 1983-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,382 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.