1000 Dover St

Centralia, IL 62801

$29,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $540/mo
• Annual: $6,479/yr
• Cap rate: 27.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.39%
• DSCR: 4.44
• 1% rule: 3.16%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Willow Grove Elem School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 146 students, 0% FRL); Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $25k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 5.8% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.