1000 Dover St · Centralia, IL 62801

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1976 0.49 ac lot Est $50k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this 1976 single-wide mobile home set on four lots totaling 0.49 acres. The home is being sold as-is and, while in overall good condition, it does need flooring repairs, including a few soft spots and holes. With some updates, it can be transformed into a comfortable full-time residence or a great investment property. A major highlight of this property is the 25' x 36' detached garage, offering two overhead doors, a concrete floor, and electricity-perfect for vehicles, storage, or workshop space. Additionally, the property includes two small storage sheds; the metal shed is equipped with electricity, providing even more functional utility. Situated on nearly half a

Key facts

• Extra outdoor space
• Storage sheds
• Room to expand

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHEDS
• METAL SHED WITH ELECTRICITY
• ROOM TO EXPAND
• EXTRA OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 5.8% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $29,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.39%
• DSCR: 4.44
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,728
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000 Dover St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,036 (0%)	5mo	$25,000	$24	96
1101 S Cherry St	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-4%)	7mo	$47,000	$47	78
1215 S Brookside St	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+13%)	8mo	$51,000	$44	56
416 Geary St	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,056 (+2%)	18mo	$102,000	$97	52
301 S Pullen Blvd	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+0%)	22mo	$69,900	$67	51
427 Delores St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+10%)	15mo	$62,500	$55	40
307 S Hickory	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,146 (+11%)	15mo	$54,900	$48	36
623 S Locust St	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,160 (+12%)	18mo	$24,000	$21	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $29,557
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.37×
• Total profit: $70,075
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $550	+0% $540	+5% $530	+10% $519
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $503	+0% $540	+5% $577	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $548	base $540	+0.5pp $532	+1.0pp $524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Rolston St Centralia, IL	2.0	1.0	1048	$945	$0.90	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
5. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
6. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
7. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
8. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-05
   historical
10. 2026-01-02
    status Pending
11. 2025-12-18
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
12. 2025-12-18
    historical Under Contract
13. 2025-12-17
    historical
14. 2025-11-18
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $6,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $4,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,663 people
• By 2030: 37,194 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,566 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 32,950 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 26,403 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 19,267 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.1% · R 75.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid