1230 E Birch Dr

New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$103,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,351/yr
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.52%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $29,092

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $718 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 647 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.