1230 E Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$103,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2019 Good condition $116/sqft · 11% below area Est $116k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! Cute & MOVE-IN-READY Newer Home is waiting for you! This 2019 Cavco 2 bedroom, 2 bath home is clean and priced to sell! Owner has taken pride in this home. With the low maintenance of a rented lot, this property is easy to care for. The rented space is $465 per month and includes water, sewer & trash, must apply at Kingman Ranch for your approval. This is a 55+ Community that is known to be peaceful and quiet and is also centrally located near shopping and medical. Enjoy the pool and more, see what this park has to offer. This newer home has everything you need for your comfort, home has two master bedrooms with it's own bath and one with a walk in shower. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED! Washer/Dryer ready for you. Two covered patios for shade cover and the 8 X 10 shed is suited for a workshop area or storage. Come tour this home today and see if it fits your needs for easy living.

Key facts

• Newer toilets
• Updated carpet
• Private bathroom

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• NEWER TOILETS
• UPDATED CARPET
• UPDATED INTERIOR PAINT
• INCLUDES ALL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($558/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.6% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 819 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $716 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,426 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,900
• List price: $103,500
• Delta: -10.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5178 N Edie Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	4mo	$115,900	$118	67
1180 E Jagerson Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	931 (+4%)	23mo	$106,000	$114	65
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.34mi	2/1.5	980 (+9%)	2mo	$154,900	$158	65
1200 E Potter Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	938 (+5%)	8mo	$105,000	$112	63
4954 Scotty Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	16mo	$116,000	$126	61
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.49mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	8mo	$147,000	$153	59
2110 E Packard Ave	0.72mi	2/1.5	937 (+5%)	1mo	$128,000	$137	56
1245 E Mcvicar Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+9%)	18mo	$60,000	$61	52
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	6mo	$95,000	$103	51
2080 E Lass Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	775 (-14%)	9mo	$105,000	$135	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-16,318
• Equity at exit: $15,432

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-20,152
• Equity at exit: $8,949

Cash invested: $28,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $99,500 ($100/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 819
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$129 /mo · $1,552/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $905

Max offer price $103,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $82	+0% $47	+5% $11	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $8	+0% $47	+5% $85	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $73	base $47	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,875
• Closing costs: $3,105
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	93d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leasedAnnual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Located in a senior communityCommunity amenities include a poolProperty is in Kingman Ranch Unit 1

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide)Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community poolWater-smart landscapingNo fencingHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioningCeiling fansElectric cooling components
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer includedElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $103,500 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $103,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $103,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $103,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $103,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $103,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $103,500 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $103,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $103,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $103,500 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $103,500 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $103,500 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $103,500 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $103,500 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $103,500 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $103,500 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $103,500 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $103,500 Active 40 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $103,500 Active 39 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    pricedays on market $103,500 Active 38 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $103,800 Active 37 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $103,800 Active 36 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $103,800 Active 35 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $103,800 Active 34 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $103,800 Active 33 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $103,800 Active 32 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $103,800 Active 31 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $103,800 Active 30 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $103,800 Active 29 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $103,800 Active 28 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $103,800 Active 27 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $103,800 Active 26 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $103,800 Active 25 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $103,800 Active 24 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $103,800 Active 23 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on market $103,800 Active 22 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $103,900 Active 19 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $103,900 Active 17 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $103,900 Active 16 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $103,900 Active 13 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $103,900 Active 12 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $103,900 Active 11 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $103,900 Active 10 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $103,900 Active 8 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $103,900 Active 7 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $103,900 Active 5 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $103,900 Active 4 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $103,900 Active 3 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
50. 2026-06-07
    listed $103,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,798
• − Property taxes: −$1,552
• − Insurance: −$518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$926
• − Management: −$926
• − Depreciation: −$3,011
• Taxable loss: −$1,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,480–$13,440 screening

This 2019 manufactured home is move-in ready with recent updates and a good condition score, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscape — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cerbat Elementary F AZ #963/1,109 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Kingman Middle School F AZ #180/218 Nat'l #13,186/14,009 High Kingman High School F AZ #364/381 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 209,184 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leasedAnnual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Located in a senior communityCommunity amenities include a poolProperty is in Kingman Ranch Unit 1

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide)Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community poolWater-smart landscapingNo fencingHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioningCeiling fansElectric cooling components
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer includedElectric dryer hookup

Price history

+12.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $103,800 WARDEX
• 2026-06-05 Listed $103,900 WARDEX
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $107,000 WARDEX
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $109,000 WARDEX
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $110,000 WARDEX
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $112,000 WARDEX
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $111,500 WARDEX
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $112,000 WARDEX
• 2025-01-05 Price Changed $112,999 WARDEX
• 2024-12-04 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $113,500 WARDEX
• 2024-10-23 Listed $114,500 WARDEX
• 2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) $85,000 WARDEX
• 2024-01-26 Pending — WARDEX
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $85,000 WARDEX
• 2024-01-11 Price Changed $89,900 WARDEX
• 2023-12-13 Listed $92,500 WARDEX