1230 E Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$103,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition Est $113k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! Cute & MOVE-IN-READY Newer Home is waiting for you! This 2019 Cavco 2 bedroom, 2 bath home is clean and priced to sell! Owner has taken pride in this home. With the low maintenance of a rented lot, this property is easy to care for. The rented space is $465 per month and includes water, sewer & trash, must apply at Kingman Ranch for your approval. This is a 55+ Community that is known to be peaceful and quiet and is also centrally located near shopping and medical. Enjoy the pool and more, see what this park has to offer. This newer home has everything you need for your comfort, home has two master bedrooms with it's own bath and one with a walk in shower. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED! Washer/Dryer ready for you. Two covered patios for shade cover and the 8 X 10 shed is suited for a workshop area or storage. Come tour this home today and see if it fits your needs for easy living.

Key facts

• Newer toilets
• Updated carpet
• Private bathroom

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• NEWER TOILETS
• UPDATED CARPET
• UPDATED INTERIOR PAINT
• INCLUDES ALL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Community amenities include a pool; Property is in Kingman Ranch Unit 1

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Water-smart landscaping; No fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 647 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $718 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,341 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.52%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,896
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5178 N Edie Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	2mo	$115,900	$118	68
1180 E Jagerson Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	931 (+4%)	21mo	$106,000	$114	67
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.34mi	2/1.5	980 (+9%)	1mo	$154,900	$158	66
1200 E Potter Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	938 (+5%)	6mo	$105,000	$112	64
4954 Scotty Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	14mo	$116,000	$126	62
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.49mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	6mo	$147,000	$153	60
1160 E Suffock Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	23mo	$155,000	$168	58
1245 E Mcvicar Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+9%)	16mo	$60,000	$61	54
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	5mo	$95,000	$103	52
2080 E Lass Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	775 (-14%)	8mo	$105,000	$135	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,336
• Equity at exit: $15,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,094
• Equity at exit: $8,983

Cash invested: $29,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 647
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $103,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $315	+0% $279	+5% $243	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $229	+0% $279	+5% $329	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $306	base $279	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,975
• Closing costs: $3,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $103,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $103,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $103,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $103,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $103,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $103,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $103,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $103,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $103,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $103,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,820
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$3,023
• Taxable income: $1,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $2,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2019 manufactured home is move-in ready with recent updates and a good condition score, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscape — improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscape — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+12.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $103,900 WARDEX
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $107,000 WARDEX
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $109,000 WARDEX
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $110,000 WARDEX
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $112,000 WARDEX
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $111,500 WARDEX
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $112,000 WARDEX
• 2025-01-05 Price Changed $112,999 WARDEX
• 2024-12-04 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $113,500 WARDEX
• 2024-10-23 Listed $114,500 WARDEX
• 2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) $85,000 WARDEX
• 2024-01-26 Pending — WARDEX
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $85,000 WARDEX
• 2024-01-11 Price Changed $89,900 WARDEX
• 2023-12-13 Listed $92,500 WARDEX