1029 Michelle Ct

Tavares, FL 32778

$299,900D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,606 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,517/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-808/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-808/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (16.1% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,517/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.