486 Water View Loop

Nixon, TN 38372

$64,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $796/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax + insurance: −$473
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $-180/mo
• Annual: $-2,164/yr
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $17,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $32k (49.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($796 rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $32k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($442 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hardin County (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hardin Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 400 students, 0% FRL); Hardin County Middle School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 677 students, 0% FRL); Hardin County High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 996 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $64k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.