3901 Lake Rd #72

West Sacramento, CA 95691

$70,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,158/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $1,221/mo
• Annual: $14,653/yr
• Cap rate: 27.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.76%
• DSCR: 4.33
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#164 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A-; Watch: cost of living F.
• Washington Unified (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #197 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elkhorn Village Elementary (584 students, 89% FRL); Evergreen Middle (6 students, 0% FRL); River City High (math 33% / reading 59%, grade D-, #409 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 2,216 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.