3901 Lake Rd #72 · West Sacramento, CA 95691

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 193 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS! Priced right for YOU to fix it how YOU want it!!! Newer roof, water heat and HVAC. This home will be perfect so come inside and see what is waiting for you! 2 bedrooms, 2 baths with large rooms and the kitchen is exciting with circular counters & tons of storage. Kitchen opens to den. Like a large master bedroom? CHECKED! Tons of space and YOU can have fun living in the senior 55+ park! Christmas lights now adorn the park and sparkling for the season. 2018 roof and all ceilings have been painted. Home cleaned inside and power washed outside. Clubhouse has pool, spa, billiards room, reading area with couches. Valhalla Estates is close to Downtown, Airport and Dav

Key facts

• Kitchen opens to den
• Hvac
• Water heat

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• WATER HEAT
• HVAC
• CIRCULAR COUNTERS
• TONS OF STORAGE
• KITCHEN OPENS TO DEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in raw data but excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured in park, double wide; Original condition; Built in 1978
• Construction: Shingle and shake roof; Bendix make (mobile home); Skirting: see remarks / other
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Landscape miscellaneous

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas cook top; Dishwasher; Pantry cabinet; Laminate and synthetic counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Sunken tub; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Built-in gas oven; Gas cook top; Dishwasher; Disposal; Insulated gas water heater; Dual-pane windows with coverings and screens; Porch steps; Deck attached to living room; Pantry cabinet; Laminate and synthetic counters; Dining bar and formal dining area; Unfurnished; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number limit)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside unit (inside room/area); 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#164 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A-; Watch: cost of living F.
• Washington Unified (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #197 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elkhorn Village Elementary (584 students, 89% FRL); Evergreen Middle (6 students, 0% FRL); River City High (math 33% / reading 59%, grade D-, #409 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 2,216 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.76%
• DSCR: 4.33
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $64,035
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.46×
• Total profit: $146,305
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95691

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $1,221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,269	-5% $1,245	+0% $1,221	+5% $1,197	+10% $1,173
Rent	-10% $1,051	-5% $1,136	+0% $1,221	+5% $1,306	+10% $1,392
Rate	-1.0pp $1,256	-0.5pp $1,239	base $1,221	+0.5pp $1,203	+1.0pp $1,185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $70,000 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 695-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $80,000 Active 172 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $14,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,455
• After-tax cash flow: $11,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641580
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,207
• Composite: 37.79/100
• National rank: #4339
• State rank: #197 of 517 in CA

Livability — West Sacramento

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #5389

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Sacramento, CA
• County: Yolo County · 212,115 people
• City population: 55,039
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,143
• Household income: $104,750
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 14% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.47%
• Current HPI: 316.9399
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B