4792 W Fall Creek Rd

Lake Holiday, IN 47933

$160,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,442/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,229/yr
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (9.9% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#106 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• South Montgomery Community School Corporation (rural): math 52% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #46 of 301 in IN (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Market Elementary School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade C+, #160 of 994 statewide, top 17%, 471 students, 42% FRL); Southmont Jr High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #84 of 330 statewide, top 26%, 376 students, 40% FRL); Southmont Sr High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #143 of 369 statewide, top 44%, 477 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 23% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $160k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.