4792 W Fall Creek Rd · Lake Holiday, IN 47933

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1998 1.45 ac lot Est $227k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

Key facts

• 1.45 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; No garage
• Utilities: Private water; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-level (one story); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage shed; Approximately 1.45-acre lot (1–3 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Primary bathroom with full shower stall and garden tub; Fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#106 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• South Montgomery Community School Corporation (rural): math 52% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #46 of 301 in IN (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Market Elementary School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade C+, #160 of 994 statewide, top 17%, 471 students, 42% FRL); Southmont Jr High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #84 of 330 statewide, top 26%, 376 students, 40% FRL); Southmont Sr High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #143 of 369 statewide, top 44%, 477 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 23% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $160k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $144,171 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,448
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4564 W Fall Creek Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,268 (-10%)	14mo	$204,999	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,763
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,634
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47933

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $276	-5% $231	+0% $186	+5% $140	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $129	+0% $186	+5% $243	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $226	base $186	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $160,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-03
    status Pending
14. 2026-05-01
    price $155,000
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $130,000 Active
16. 2016-06-27
    soldstatus $79,900 Sold 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

17. 2016-06-24
    status Pending 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

18. 2016-06-02
    historical Active with Contingency 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

19. 2016-04-26
    price $79,900 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

20. 2016-04-07
    price $89,000 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

21. 2016-04-06
    listed $79,900 Active 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Enjoy this fantastic location on 1.45 acres with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This well-maintained home is a great place to live.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$109
• After-tax cash flow: $2,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Montgomery Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,952
• Composite: 43.79/100
• National rank: #2935
• State rank: #46 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lake Holiday

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #5603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 28,357 people
• Metro: Crawfordsville, IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,357
• Household income: $68,130
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,893 people
• By 2030: 37,539 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 36,536 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 34,454 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 28,852 · -23.9%
• By 2100: 21,145 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 24.9% · R 73.2% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: -19.9pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+49.1 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.91%
• Current HPI: 211.6864
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Crawfordsville, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+94.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $155,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $130,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-27 Sold (MLS) $79,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-24 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-02 Contingent — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-26 Price Changed $79,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-07 Price Changed $89,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-06 Listed $79,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.