228 Berry Tree Pl

Brandon, FL 33510

$143,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$380
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,071/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $40,292

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (11.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $995 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Limona Elementary School (math 63% / reading 57%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 567 students, 55% FRL); Mclane Middle School (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 817 students, 74% FRL); Brandon High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,560 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.