228 Berry Tree Pl · Brandon, FL 33510

$143,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · Condo public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1985 $380/mo HOA · 24% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a highly sought-after gated community in Brandon, FL. Offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, this residence is surrounded by exceptional amenities designed for an active and enjoyable lifestyle. Stay fit in the well-appointed fitness center, unwind at the community playground, or enjoy friendly competition on the basketball, tennis, and pickleball courts. The community also features two sparkling resort-style pools, perfect for relaxing or cooling off on sunny Florida days.

Key facts

• $380 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (11.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Limona Elementary School (math 63% / reading 57%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 567 students, 55% FRL); Mclane Middle School (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 817 students, 74% FRL); Brandon High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,560 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $995 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,127 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-33,405
• Equity at exit: $21,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-53,371
• Equity at exit: $12,442

Cash invested: $40,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33510

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,733/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $128,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-49	+0% $-89	+5% $-130	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-152	+0% $-89	+5% $-27	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-53	base $-89	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,975
• Closing costs: $4,317
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
626 Golden Raintree Pl Brandon, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	26d	1	0.04mi
626 Golden Raintree Pl Unit 626 Brandon, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$1,295	$2.00	26d	1	0.04mi
628 Golden Raintree Pl Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	26d	1	0.05mi
205 Berry Tree Pl Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	22d	1	0.05mi
211 Thorn Tree Pl Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	26d	1	0.11mi
233 Red Maple Pl #233 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	5d	1	0.11mi
205 Red Maple Pl #205 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	26d	1	0.12mi
122 N Kings Ave #202 Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,550	$1.45	26d	1	0.14mi
701 Russell Ln Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,495	$1.37	26d	1	0.14mi
402 Big Cedar Way Unit A Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	938	$1,800	$1.92	1d	1	0.17mi
235 Red Maple Pl #235 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	6d	1	0.17mi
709 Russell Ln Unit C221 Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,600	$1.50	26d	1	0.18mi
711 Russell Ln #134 Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,599	$1.50	5d	1	0.19mi
804 Fairmaiden Ln Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	912	$1,570	$1.72	26d	7	0.55mi
109 Ruby Cir Brandon, FL	3.0	1.0	975	$1,950	$2.00	26d	1	0.59mi
200 Cook St Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	24d	1	0.61mi
110 Summerfield Way Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,684	$1.72	1d	24	0.67mi
408 Pinewood Ct Brandon, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,450	$1.93	7d	1	0.72mi
1212 Askew Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1427	$2,014	$1.41	1d	8	0.75mi
608 Lynchburg Dr Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,800	$1.76	7d	1	0.87mi
529 S Parsons Ave Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$1,702	$2.41	0d	20	0.91mi
203 Lake Parsons Grn #108 Brandon, FL	1.0	1.0	612	$1,500	$2.45	1d	1	1.00mi
214 Lake Parsons Grn #103 Brandon, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,450	$1.93	26d	1	1.02mi
209 Lake Brook Cir Unit LB103 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	811	$1,300	$1.60	26d	1	1.03mi
314 Lake Parsons Grn #201 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	916	$1,750	$1.91	26d	1	1.03mi
209 Lake Brook Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	794	$1,612	$2.03	24d	2	1.03mi
795 Ironwood Flats Cir Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1163	$2,278	$1.96	0d	35	1.03mi
308 Lake Parsons Grn Brandon, FL	1.0	1.0	583	$1,350	$2.31	26d	2	1.06mi
308 Lake Parsons Grn Brandon, FL	1.0	1.0	598	$1,388	$2.32	17d	2	1.06mi
221 Lake Brook Cir #208 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	5d	1	1.09mi
803 Lake Haven Sq #202 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.0	811	$1,500	$1.85	5d	1	1.11mi
1701 Lake Chapman Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,866	$2.33	1d	32	1.12mi
1206 E Camellia Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,919	$1.85	26d	1	1.20mi
921 Paddock Club Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1131	$1,779	$1.57	0d	37	1.33mi
601 Highview Ter S Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,995	$1.95	1d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   remarks 603-char remark
2. 2026-06-04
   status $143,900 Pending 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $143,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $143,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $143,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $143,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-04-06
   listed $143,900 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a highly sought-after gated community in Brandon, FL. Offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, this residence is surrounded by exceptional amenities designed for an active and enjoyable lifestyle. Stay fit in the well-appointed fitness center, unwind at the community playground, or enjoy friendly competition on the basketball, tennis, and pickleball courts. The community also features two sparkling resort-style pools, perfect for relaxing or cooling off on sunny Florida days.

8. 2025-12-18
   historical $1,575
9. 2025-11-19
   listed $1,575
10. 2025-11-15
    historical $1,575
11. 2025-11-05
    price $1,575
12. 2025-10-30
    price $1,600
13. 2025-09-29
    listed $1,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,061
• − Property taxes: −$1,733
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,186
• Taxable loss: −$3,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $-276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,578
• Household income: $74,245
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1192.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.54%
• Current HPI: 328.43
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8621.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $143,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Rental Removed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-19 Listed for Rent $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-15 Rental Removed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-29 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,733 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.