800 La Florida Dr

Canutillo, TX 79835

$425,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,757 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$948
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-603/mo
• Annual: $-7,232/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $319k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,277 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canutillo El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 519 students, 82% FRL); Jose J Alderete Middle (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 595 students, 72% FRL); Canutillo H S (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,642 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.