800 La Florida Dr · Canutillo, TX 79835

$425,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2003 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,277 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canutillo El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 519 students, 82% FRL); Jose J Alderete Middle (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 595 students, 72% FRL); Canutillo H S (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,642 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,542 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $193,280
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $599,753
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79835

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$771 /mo · $9,250/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,021

Max offer price $318,542

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-362	-5% $-482	+0% $-603	+5% $-723	+10% $-843
Rent	-10% $-860	-5% $-731	+0% $-603	+5% $-474	+10% $-345
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-495	base $-603	+0.5pp $-713	+1.0pp $-825

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2375 Enchanted Peaks Ln El Paso, TX	5.0	3.5	3403	$4,050	$1.19	25d	1	0.95mi
7509 Enchanted Park Dr El Paso, TX	5.0	3.0	3306	$3,500	$1.06	25d	1	1.06mi
7437 Schweitz Ct El Paso, TX	4.0	3.5	2456	$2,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.16mi
7517 Red Cedar Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2043	$2,395	$1.17	45d	1	1.23mi
7428 Glacier Dr El Paso, TX	5.0	2.5	2453	$3,600	$1.47	5d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $425,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $425,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    listed $425,000 Active
17. 2025-01-08
    historical $1,995
18. 2024-12-10
    price $1,995
19. 2024-11-06
    price $2,095
20. 2024-09-26
    listed $2,145
21. 2024-09-26
    historical $2,145
22. 2024-09-25
    listed $2,145

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,250 · $771/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,250 · $771/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$9,250
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,128
• − Management: −$3,128
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$14,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,528
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canutillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812780
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,327
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6636
• State rank: #542 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canutillo

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1277
• US rank: #22193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canutillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 25% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 23% English-only · Spanish 76% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 191.76
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19713.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $425,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Rental Removed $1,995 GEPARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $1,995 GEPARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $2,095 GEPARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,145 GEPARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Rental Removed $2,145 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-25 Listed for Rent $2,145 SHOWMOJO

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,250 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.