104 Estelle Ln

Quail Creek, TX 77905

$169,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,619/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,448/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aloe El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 426 students, 70% FRL); Patti Welder Middle (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 638 students, 79% FRL); Victoria West H S (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.