104 Estelle Ln · Quail Creek, TX 77905

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2012 1.11 ac lot Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing property that has been extremely well maintained! Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, open concept and split bedroom plan. Spacious living, dining, and kitchen areas with indoor laundry room. Large primary bedroom with huge bathroom and nice walk-in closet, and two generous sized secondary bedrooms and second bathroom. Large 1.11-acre corner lot with scattered mature trees, also 3 storage units and dog kennel in the backyard. .. all enclosed with a high chain link and wood fence. This is the perfect spot for privacy, comfort, relaxation and enjoyment! Schedule your appointment now, this one will not last long.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Large corner lot
• Storage units

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• STORAGE UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot with mature trees; Lot size approximately 1.11 acres; Road surface: caliche and dirt

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: Fenced backyard; Chain link gate; High wood fence
• Utilities: Electricity available; Private water (well); Trash collection (private); Sewer options noted: aerobic septic and public sewer; not connected at lot
• Home design: Single-story; Double wide mobile home; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Composition/shingle roof; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Dog run; Exterior storage; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms arranged with a split layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Split bedrooms; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Vanity; Tub with shower; Breakfast area; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aloe El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 426 students, 70% FRL); Patti Welder Middle (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 638 students, 79% FRL); Victoria West H S (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,928 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,352
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Estelle Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	1mo	$169,900	$117	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,573
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,895
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $252	+0% $204	+5% $156	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $140	+0% $204	+5% $268	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $247	base $204	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2013-04-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,748/yr (+$146/mo · 128.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $2,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quail Creek

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #9560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $169,900 CTXMLS
• 2013-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.