304 N 4th St

Oregon, IL 61061

$84,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1897 · SingleFamily · Pending · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $157/mo
• Annual: $1,889/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $23,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#193 in IL, #3,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oregon CUSD 220 (town): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #400 of 620 in IL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.4% in Oregon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.