304 N 4th St · Oregon, IL 61061

$84,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1897 9,147 sqft lot $74/sqft · 43% below area Est $147k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1897

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.4% in Oregon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#193 in IL, #3,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oregon CUSD 220 (town): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #400 of 620 in IL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,691
• List price: $84,000
• Delta: -42.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 N 4th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,128 (0%)	0mo	$66,649	$59	100
406 Williams Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+2%)	1mo	$203,500	$176	64
403 N 6th St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+6%)	20mo	$220,000	$183	62
106 Mix St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+10%)	4mo	$176,000	$142	58
603 Jackson	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+6%)	21mo	$133,000	$111	57
606 S 2nd St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,093 (-3%)	9mo	$109,000	$100	54
202 N Etnyre	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-11%)	2mo	$109,900	$109	49
606 Madison St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+6%)	23mo	$24,900	$21	47
611 S 2nd St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,202 (+7%)	21mo	$142,500	$119	37
502 S 6th St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,222 (+8%)	22mo	$184,000	$151	33
508 S 8th St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-13%)	15mo	$90,000	$92	29
1508 W Washington St	0.57mi	3/23.0	1,207 (+7%)	15mo	$180,000	$149	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-3,520
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $10,119
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61061

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,281/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $181	+0% $157	+5% $134	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $116	+0% $157	+5% $199	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $179	base $157	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

2. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

3. 2026-05-08
   price $84,000 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

4. 2026-05-08
   price $84,000 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

5. 2026-04-21
   price $89,000 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

6. 2026-04-21
   price $89,000 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

7. 2026-03-17
   price $104,500 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

8. 2026-03-17
   price $104,500 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

9. 2026-02-18
   price $110,000 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

10. 2026-02-18
    price $110,000 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

11. 2026-01-30
    price $114,900 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

12. 2026-01-30
    price $114,900 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

13. 2026-01-04
    listed $121,000 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

14. 2026-01-04
    listed $121,000 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Three bedroom home with main floor living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom and full bath. Upstairs with two additional bedrooms. Full basement and a detached 1 car garage.

15. 2019-08-20
    soldstatus $62,500
16. 2019-08-19
    soldstatus $62,500
17. 2019-06-04
    listed $65,900
18. 2011-09-04
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,281 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,281 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$2,281
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $1,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon CUSD 220
• NCES district ID: 1730160
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,631
• Composite: 18.8/100
• National rank: #8868
• State rank: #400 of 620 in IL

Livability — Oregon

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #3619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oregon, IL
• Population (ZIP): 6,802

Population outlook (Ogle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,390 people
• By 2030: 46,346 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 41,772 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 36,911 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 27,130 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 18,627 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.5% · R 63.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.08%
• Current HPI: 168.0125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+27.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-19 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $84,000 NWIAR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $84,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $89,000 NWIAR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $89,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $104,500 NWIAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $104,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $110,000 NWIAR
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $114,900 NWIAR
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $114,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Listed $121,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Listed $121,000 NWIAR
• 2019-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2019-08-19 Sold (MLS) $62,500 NWIAR
• 2019-06-04 Listed $65,900 NWIAR
• 2011-09-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,281 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.