4820 Night Herder

St. Hedwig, TX 78152

$279,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,395 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$41
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-186/mo
• Annual: $-2,227/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rose Garden El (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 902 students, 48% FRL); Ray D Corbett J H (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,188 students, 40% FRL); Samuel Clemens H S (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,544 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in St. Hedwig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.