16 Elm St

Philmont, NY 12565

$110,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1893 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $820/mo
• Annual: $9,838/yr
• Cap rate: 15.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.94%
• DSCR: 2.42
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $872 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#958 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severely damaged
• Major: bathroom fixtures — severely damaged
• Major: roof — visible wear and tear
• Major: exterior siding — weathered and exposed
• Major: flooring — damaged wood
• Major: interior walls — peeling paint and exposed wood