48 Winterberry Cir

Golden's Bridge, NY 10518

$599,000C

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,570 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$679
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,253
• Net cashflow: $456/mo
• Annual: $5,477/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.27%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $597k (0.4% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $597k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #32 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Increase Miller Elementary School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 9% FRL); John Jay Middle School (math 58% / reading 79%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 7% FRL); John Jay High School (math 98% / reading 82%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 917 students, 9% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $599k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.3% in Golden's Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.