48 Winterberry Cir · Golden's Bridge, NY 10518

$599,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1986 1,191 sqft lot Est $595k · at est. $679/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit in The Meadows. Offering 2 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this spacious home combines comfort, privacy, and convenience. The updated kitchen features wood cabinetry and granite countertops. The open floor plan creates a seamless transition from the dining room into a cozy living room with a fireplace. Sliding glass doors lead to a private deck, perfect for enjoying peaceful views with your morning coffee. Just off the living room, a versatile room with custom built-ins provides the ideal space for an office, den, playroom, or library. Additional features include a large unfinished basement for ample storage, a stand-up attic, and an attached one-car

Key facts

• $679 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area recorded from public records
• HOA & community: Association managed by Scalzo Management; Monthly association fee; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, parking; Association fee covers cable TV, internet, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash; Additional quarterly water assessment

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space; Driveway; Garage door opener; Parking lot (additional parking); Total parking spaces: 1
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Trash collection (public); Electric service by NYSEG
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; Two stories; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms across two levels (entry level is 1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Deck; Basement (unfinished); Pull-stair attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $597k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $597k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.3% in Golden's Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #32 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Increase Miller Elementary School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 9% FRL); John Jay Middle School (math 58% / reading 79%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 7% FRL); John Jay High School (math 98% / reading 82%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 917 students, 9% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $599k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $596,653 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.27%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $595,030
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Willow Ct	0.11mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,451 (-8%)	0mo	$550,000	$379	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $227,361
• Equity at exit: $403,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $640,768
• Equity at exit: $755,774

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10518

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$679
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,253
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,389

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $679 · $8,148/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $599,000 Active
3. 2026-04-22
   historical $599,000
4. 1986-09-30
   soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,248 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,186 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,938/yr (+$328/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,728
• − Management: −$5,728
• − HOA: −$8,148
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$4,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $6,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616080
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $140,994
• Composite: 75.09/100
• National rank: #142
• State rank: #32 of 590 in NY

Livability — Golden's Bridge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,040
• Population (ZIP): 789

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Current HPI: 129.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+192.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,248 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.