4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,500 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 204 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,867/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$317
HOA
−$88
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$392
Net cashflow
$74/mo
Annual
$888/yr
Cap rate
6.76%
Cash-on-cash
1.67%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$53,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($888/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.7% below list).
It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.0% in Uhland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XYGPYQEXGEP46D
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29