195 Sonora Dr

Advance, NC 27006

$136,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 845 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $524/mo
• Annual: $6,284/yr
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.44%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $38,220

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $944 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#215 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Davie County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #57 of 178 in NC (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Grove Elementary (math 66% / reading 73%, grade A-, #95 of 1,410 statewide, top 7%, 514 students, 23% FRL); William Ellis Middle (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 452 students, 31% FRL); Davie County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,770 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 250 units permitted in Davie County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davie County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 1.9% in Advance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.