223 Private Road 1776

Knoxville, AR 72847

$99,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $405/mo
• Annual: $4,865/yr
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.39%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#250 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lamar School District (rural): math 32% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #152 of 238 in AR (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.