223 Private Road 1776 · Knoxville, AR 72847

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured · 174 Days on market

Built 2000 1.12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 4 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sits permanently affixed on just over an acre of land only 2 miles from the Piney Bay recreational area. Updated features include a newer metal roof, new drywall, flooring, custom cabinetry, and more. On the property there are mature blackberry and concord grape vines, strawberry patches, and mature catalpa trees. There are several outbuildings, one with loft space for added storage. call or text today to view this home.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Mature catalpa trees
• Concord grape vines

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• MATURE BLACKBERRY VINES
• CONCORD GRAPE VINES
• STRAWBERRY PATCHES
• MATURE CATALPA TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#250 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lamar School District (rural): math 32% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #152 of 238 in AR (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.39%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,688
• Equity at exit: $54,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $119,798
• Equity at exit: $92,008

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72847

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $301/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-01-22
   price $99,900
3. 2025-09-13
   listed $89,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $639 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 112.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$301
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $4,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar School District
• NCES district ID: 0508700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $34,106
• Composite: 25.53/100
• National rank: #7432
• State rank: #152 of 238 in AR

Livability — Knoxville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #18122

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,256

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,452 people
• By 2030: 28,003 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 28,960 · +5.5%
• By 2050: 29,627 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 31,000 · +12.9%
• By 2100: 31,173 · +13.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.3% · R 74.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.4pp toward R · 2008: -23.1pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+49.0 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+23.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.63%
• Current HPI: 210.6863
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $99,900 CARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $89,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $301 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.