42 Devlin Rd

Eldred, NY 12743

$169,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,401/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $170k implies a 1316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.3% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.