42 Devlin Rd · Eldred, NY 12743

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1961 1.30 ac lot $274/sqft · 20% below area Est $259k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just on the market this Sweet country cottage with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and nice living area is ready for your country get-a-way or year round retreat. Beautiful private spot located in Highland Lake NY Sullivan County Catskills! Amazing large fenced in garden area or a place for your pets to roam freely, side patio, level land with additional lot included for a total of 2.6 acres! The current owner lovingly improved the cottage with new flooring, fresh paint in muted shades of colors and many beautiful touches. Lovely kitchen area and a bright and light bathroom complete this cottages appeal! Close to area conveniences including farmers markets, Eldred conveniences, schools ,the Delaware River for Recreation and less than 30 minutes to commuter trains and buses. Only 2 hours GWB so don't wait to view your own slice of heaven!

Key facts

• Level land
• Side patio
• 1.3 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN GARDEN AREA
• SIDE PATIO
• LEVEL LAND
• ADDITIONAL LOT INCLUDED
• BRIGHT AND LIGHT BATHROOM
• CLOSE TO AREA CONVENIENCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.2% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $170k implies a 1316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,375 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,397
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -34.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $37,907
• Equity at exit: $102,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $118,406
• Equity at exit: $183,189

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12743

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,314/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $149,278

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 843-char remark

   Show marketing remark (843 chars)

   Just on the market this Sweet country cottage with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and nice living area is ready for your country get-a-way or year round retreat. Beautiful private spot located in Highland Lake NY Sullivan County Catskills! Amazing large fenced in garden area or a place for your pets to roam freely, side patio, level land with additional lot included for a total of 2.6 acres! The current owner lovingly improved the cottage with new flooring, fresh paint in muted shades of colors and many beautiful touches. Lovely kitchen area and a bright and light bathroom complete this cottages appeal! Close to area conveniences including farmers markets, Eldred conveniences, schools ,the Delaware River for Recreation and less than 30 minutes to commuter trains and buses. Only 2 hours GWB so don't wait to view your own slice of heaven!

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $169,900 Active 843-char remark

   Show marketing remark (843 chars)

   Just on the market this Sweet country cottage with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and nice living area is ready for your country get-a-way or year round retreat. Beautiful private spot located in Highland Lake NY Sullivan County Catskills! Amazing large fenced in garden area or a place for your pets to roam freely, side patio, level land with additional lot included for a total of 2.6 acres! The current owner lovingly improved the cottage with new flooring, fresh paint in muted shades of colors and many beautiful touches. Lovely kitchen area and a bright and light bathroom complete this cottages appeal! Close to area conveniences including farmers markets, Eldred conveniences, schools ,the Delaware River for Recreation and less than 30 minutes to commuter trains and buses. Only 2 hours GWB so don't wait to view your own slice of heaven!

3. 2020-10-01
   soldstatus $12,000
4. 2017-10-05
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,593 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,314
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $-350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 319

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.63%
• Current HPI: 407.7822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+579.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $169,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,314 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.