176 Apple Ln

Heritage Village, CT 06783

$1,995,000B-

3 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,152 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,810/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax + insurance: −$1,877
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,000
• Net cashflow: $6,471/mo
• Annual: $77,654/yr
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.90%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $558,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($78k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $2.00M).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.94M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.94M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#112 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.49M; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.2% in Heritage Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.