176 Apple Ln · Heritage Village, CT 06783

$1,995,000

3 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1972 4.24 ac lot $633/sqft · 15% above area Est $1962k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your turnkey country escape is waiting in Roxbury - a modern shinglestyle home on 4+ manicured acres with a resortlevel pool, just far enough from the city to exhale, yet close enough to make spontaneous weekend getaways a reality. From the moment you arrive, this summer ready property feels like a private club: stone walls, curated landscaping, quiet woods, and outdoor spaces designed for long summer days and late night gatherings. The gunite pool is the centerpiece - sparkling, secluded, and ready the moment you are. Inside, sunlight pours through picture windows into an open layout built for effortless entertaining. Custom oak details, a dramatic fieldstone fireplace, and a chef's kitchen with high-end appliances and stone counters set the stage for everything from cozy winter weekends to lively holiday hosting. With 4 ensuite bedrooms, the home adapts beautifully to guests and long family weekends. The first floor ensuite offers effortless hospitality, while the second floor luxury primary suite- complete with 11 foot ceilings and a marble spa bath - provides a calm, spa-level retreat. A steel-and-glass office alcove and a bonus room above the garage with interior access, offer the perfect flex space for a studio, gym, or potential guest suite. The finished lower level and walkout access adds even more room to unwind. Fully renovated since 2021 including new HVAC, generator, and more - means no projects, no delays to start enjoying the Litchfield Lifestyle.

Key facts

• Gunite pool
• Curated landscaping
• Stone walls

Tags

• MANICURED ACRES
• RESORTLEVEL POOL
• STONE WALLS
• CURATED LANDSCAPING
• OUTDOOR SPACES
• GUNITE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($78k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $2.00M).
• Recommended offer: $1.94M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.0% in Heritage Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#112 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.94M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.49M; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $1,935,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.90%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,962,375
• List price: $1,995,000
• Delta: 1.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
257 Southbury Rd	0.74mi	3/3.0	3,086 (-2%)	13mo	$1,875,000	$608	45
12 Old Roxbury Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	3,440 (+9%)	12mo	$1,350,000	$392	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $88,343
• Equity at exit: $297,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $605,481
• Equity at exit: $172,491

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06783

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax from tax record: −$1,045 /mo · $12,545/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,000
• Net cashflow: $6,471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,619

Max offer price $1,995,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,600	-5% $7,036	+0% $6,471	+5% $5,906	+10% $5,342
Rent	-10% $4,590	-5% $5,531	+0% $6,471	+5% $7,412	+10% $8,352
Rate	-1.0pp $7,476	-0.5pp $6,979	base $6,471	+0.5pp $5,954	+1.0pp $5,428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Old Roxbury Rd Roxbury, CT	3.0	3.5	2862	$15,000	$5.24	24d	1	0.78mi
34 Old Roxbury Rd Roxbury, CT	4.0	4.5	3996	$35,000	$8.76	44d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $1,995,000 Under Contract 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $1,995,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $1,995,000 Active 1485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

    Your turnkey country escape is waiting in Roxbury - a modern shinglestyle home on 4+ manicured acres with a resortlevel pool, just far enough from the city to exhale, yet close enough to make spontaneous weekend getaways a reality. From the moment you arrive, this summer ready property feels like a private club: stone walls, curated landscaping, quiet woods, and outdoor spaces designed for long summer days and late night gatherings. The gunite pool is the centerpiece - sparkling, secluded, and ready the moment you are. Inside, sunlight pours through picture windows into an open layout built for effortless entertaining. Custom oak details, a dramatic fieldstone fireplace, and a chef's kitchen with high-end appliances and stone counters set the stage for everything from cozy winter weekends to lively holiday hosting. With 4 ensuite bedrooms, the home adapts beautifully to guests and long family weekends. The first floor ensuite offers effortless hospitality, while the second floor luxury primary suite- complete with 11 foot ceilings and a marble spa bath - provides a calm, spa-level retreat. A steel-and-glass office alcove and a bonus room above the garage with interior access, offer the perfect flex space for a studio, gym, or potential guest suite. The finished lower level and walkout access adds even more room to unwind. Fully renovated since 2021 including new HVAC, generator, and more - means no projects, no delays to start enjoying the Litchfield Lifestyle.

18. 2026-05-15
    historical
19. 2026-04-08
    price $1,995,000
20. 2026-02-16
    listed $2,295,000 Active
21. 2026-02-12
    historical
22. 2021-05-04
    soldstatus $1,485,000 Closed
23. 2021-05-04
    soldstatus $1,485,000
24. 2021-04-01
    historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
25. 2021-03-24
    price $1,500,000
26. 2020-10-13
    price $1,795,000
27. 2020-06-10
    listed $1,995,000 Active
28. 2018-08-01
    historical
29. 2018-03-09
    price $679,000
30. 2018-03-08
    status Active
31. 2018-01-02
    historical
32. 2017-05-01
    listed $745,000 Active
33. 2015-06-02
    historical
34. 2014-06-03
    listed $895,000
35. 2013-10-15
    historical
36. 2012-01-12
    listed $895,000
37. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus $680,000
38. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus $680,000
39. 2004-03-26
    listed $725,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,545 · $1,045/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $27,619 · $2,302/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,074/yr (+$1,256/mo · 120.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $285,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$12,545
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,857
• − Management: −$22,857
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable income: $47,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,447
• After-tax cash flow: $66,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 12
• NCES district ID: 0903530
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $86,065
• Composite: 63.18/100
• National rank: #638
• State rank: #20 of 153 in CT

Livability — Heritage Village

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #9662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,973
• Population (ZIP): 2,184

Population outlook (Northwest Hills County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 118,998

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 7% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northwest Hills

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 49.9% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.80%
• Current HPI: 170.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+175.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $1,995,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $1,995,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $2,295,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-02-12 Coming Soon — Smart MLS
• 2021-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $1,485,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-04 Sold (MLS) $1,485,000 Smart MLS
• 2021-04-01 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2021-03-24 Price Changed $1,500,000 Smart MLS
• 2020-10-13 Price Changed $1,795,000 Smart MLS
• 2020-06-10 Listed $1,995,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-08-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2018-03-09 Price Changed $679,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-03-08 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2018-01-02 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2017-05-01 Listed $745,000 Smart MLS
• 2015-06-02 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2014-06-03 Listed $895,000 Smart MLS
• 2013-10-15 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2012-01-12 Listed $895,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $680,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-15 Sold (MLS) $680,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-03-26 Listed $725,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $12,545 · +36.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.